• Posted January 20, 2026

AI Predicts Seniors' Fall Risk Based On Core Strength, As Early As Middle Age

AI can predict a person’s risk of a fall injury in old age while they're still in their 40s and 50s, a new study says.

The AI analyzes CT imaging scans of a person’s abdomen, focusing on their core strength.

People with the weakest core strength — as measured through muscle density — were more than twice as likely to suffer a fall in their senior years, compared to those with the strongest cores, according to findings recently published in the Mayo Clinic Proceedings.

“One of the most important messages from this research is to keep your abdominal muscles in the best shape possible," lead researcher Jennifer St. Sauver, an epidemiologist with the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, said in a news release.

"Doing so may provide benefits that start in midlife and continue well into older adulthood,” she said.

Falls are the leading cause of injury for people 65 and older, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

For the study, researchers analyzed CT scans for nearly 4,000 people between 20 and 89 in Minnesota and Wisconsin who’d undergone an abdominal CT scan between 2010 and 2020.

During nearly seven years of follow-up, more than 500 suffered at least one fall, researchers found.

People were 2.3 times more likely to fall if they had low core muscle density, researchers found.

The study revealed that muscle density in a person’s core is a stronger predictor of fall risk than muscle size, researchers found.

"Muscle size is just a measure of how big your muscles are," St. Sauver said. "Muscle density is different; on a CT scan, it's a measure of how 'dark' and homogenous the muscles are."

More homogenous muscles are denser and tend to have less fat in them, she said.

"Previous studies have suggested that muscle density, not size, is more strongly associated with physical strength and function," St. Sauver said. "Our results support the idea that we should be focusing on muscle density, not muscle size, when we try to understand physical function."

Another surprising finding was that the core strength of middle-aged adults predicted their fall risk as seniors.

Such predictions were expected among scans of seniors, but not among the middle-aged, researchers said.

"Leg muscles have been associated with physical function, but our findings show that abdominal muscles also play a significant role,” St. Sauver said.

More information

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has more on fall injuries among seniors.

SOURCES: Mayo Clinic, news release, Jan. 15, 2026; Mayo Clinic Proceedings, December 2025